Why Courts Are Unlikely To Throw Out Missouri’s Congressional Primary

May 19, 2026

Missouri’s congressional redistricting fight is entering a new phase.

The Missouri Supreme Court has already upheld HB 1 and ruled that referendum petitions do not automatically suspend the law just because signatures were filed.

Notwithstanding the latest actions by the Boone County Clerk, the August Primary election will be held under the Missouri First Map.

But what happens if Missouri holds its August 2026 congressional primary under HB 1, and the referendum petition is certified after?

Some activists have suggested the election itself could later be invalidated.

Courts Usually Avoid Election Chaos

Courts generally avoid changing election rules close to an election.

At the federal level, it’s known as the Purcell Principle: judges are reluctant to create voter confusion or disrupt election administration once ballots are being prepared and elections are underway.

That concern becomes even stronger after an election has already happened.

Throwing out a completed congressional primary would mean invalidating votes cast under rules that were legally in effect at the time.

HB 1 Would Still Be The Law

Under the current legal posture, HB 1 remains in effect unless and until courts or the certification process say otherwise. The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously rejected the argument that filing referendum petitions automatically suspends the law.

So if the August primary happens before certification, everyone involved would be operating under a map that:

• – was lawfully enacted,
• – remained operative at the time,
• – and had already been upheld by the Missouri Supreme Court.

That creates a major barrier to undoing the election later.

The Remedy Problem

If certification happened after the primary, courts would basically have three options:

1. Throw out the primary and rerun it
2. Let the primary stand and keep HB 1 in place for 2026
3. Let the primary stand but switch maps before the general election

Throwing out the primary would be chaos.

It would require:

• – invalidating certified results,
• – rerunning races,
• – reassigning voters,
• – redesigning ballots,
• – and compressing election timelines.

Courts generally avoid remedies that disruptive unless the law clearly requires intervention.

Keeping the primary while switching maps for the general election solves very little. Candidates could end up being nominated in one district and running the general election in another.

The Most Likely Outcome

If Missouri conducts and certifies its congressional primary under HB 1 before referendum certification happens, courts are very unlikely to later throw out the entire election.

Based on the current legal posture, the most likely practical outcome is that HB 1 remains the operative map through the 2026 election cycle.

Andy Bakker

Executive Director
Liberty Alliance USA